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Going against the grain of a hurricane-snuffing El Niño event, a tiny tropical cyclone has become the strongest hurricane in years over the deep Atlantic tropics. Hurricane Danny intensified dramatically on Thursday night and Friday morning, strengthening to Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Danny has managed to wall off a central core of convection intense enough to keep dry-air intrusions at bay, but this will become an increasing challenge for Danny over the next several days. Both dynamical and statistical models are in strong agreement that Danny will begin weakening by Saturday, as it encounters the increasing shear and dry air, and Danny will most likely be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane by Monday as it approaches Puerto Rico. An important caveat: tropical cyclones like Danny can strengthen or weaken very quickly, so there is more uncertainty than usual in this intensity forecast, especially at longer range.

...êtres vivants qui luttent pour leur survie dans un environnement souvent hostiles.

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